Editor’s Column: Inflation threat will destabilise 2022 

I doubt it will hit wine consumption too much but it was one of many twists in a Budget this week that I found more than a little odd.

For one thing, from an investment and savings point of view it was a massive damp squib. There was almost nothing of substance for the Financial Planning community.

OK, I’ll give you a little fix for pensions net pay anomaly but that was about it.

Of more importance, over the coming 12 months, are tax trends over the last two Budgets which will hit millions and push many more into the higher rate tax bands due to frozen allowances.

Of most importance is the more worrying forecast by the Chancellor that CPI will average over 4% over the coming year. 

This could have a significant destabilising effect on the economy.

Inflation could well end up being the dominant theme for Financial Planning in 2022. Planners will have to be on their toes to deal with the corrosive effects of inflation on investment income, pensions, retirement income and the like.

They will also have to advise clients on how to deal with a rising government tax take. Tax mitigation will become far more important, would be my guess.

Inflation is inevitably bouncing back as the world economy gets back slowly, and a little unsurely, to something more normal. Inevitably shortages are emerging in some areas as distribution recovers and we are seeing some painful price rises so inflation is here for a while, lurking around like a spectre in the corner.

If the Chancellor is right we will see inflation in 2022 at levels not seen for a decade and, in fact, you would have to go back to the late 1980s and early 1990s to witness several years of inflation above 4%.

As prices rise the pressure for bigger pay increases will emerge too and there could be some labour friction in key sectors and industries.

It all makes for a more unstable economic outlook in 2022. On the positive side the UK economy, as it recovers from the hammering it received during the pandemic, will see GDP growth figures it has not enjoyed since the sixties.

It will all make for quite a ride next year and no doubt encourage more people to seek professional advice. Demand for Financial Planning will, inevitably, soar. Demand for red wine, I suspect, may dip a little.

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